School numbers expected to drop in 2030

The Department for Education (DfE) has published its national projections for the number of pupils in state schools in England, which are calculated based on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) population estimate and projections, monthly birth registration data up to and including 2023, and school census data up to and including January 2025.

Data expects 4,205,17 pupils to be in nursery and primary schools by 2030, which is a decrease of 300,000 from the population in 2025. The DfE estimates there to be 3,135,086 pupils in secondary schools by 2030, which is an expected fall of 97,000 from the population.

Currently, 4,505,330 pupils are in state nursery and primary schools, and 3,231,858 pupils are in state secondary schools.

The population attending primary and nursery schools peaked in 2019 and the figures have been gradually falling since then, largely due to a lower birth rate since 2012.

Since 2018, the population in secondary schools had been steadily increasing by around two per cent a year until 2023 where it then slowed down to a 1.3 per cent increase in 2024. Projections indicate that the secondary school population is likely to have plateaued between 2024 and 2025, this will remain at a similar level until 2026, before declining slowly.

The population in state-funded special schools has seen a year-on-yer increase of six per cent between 2018 and 2022 and five per cent since 2023. Projections indicate that numbers are expected to peak in 2026-7.

The pandemic reduced opportunities to refer children to alternative provision schools, so uptake has dropped by 18 per cent in 2021 and nine per cent in 2022. Figures returned to the approximate pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and increased a further five per cent in 2025, with figures expected to peak in 2026-27 then fall.