Demand for school places continues to decline

A new report by London Councils has found that demand for school places is declining across the capital, and predicts a further decrease of 3.6 per cent in reception pupils numbers in London over the next four years. This means is 3,195 places less, or a drop of 117 reception classes.

A further 2.9 per cent decrease in pupils beginning secondary school is also estimated, which translates to 2,646 places, or 100 year seven classes. These statistics increase the looming threat of further school closures to come in the future.

London’s decreasing birth rate is largely to blame, with a 20 per cent reduction in live births between 2012-2022, equating to 27,490 less babies. The sharp drop is birth rate is related to the severe shortage of affordable family housing in the capital, with more people deciding not to have families in London.

Reducing school places have a knock-on effect to the amount of funding a school receives, meaning schools are having to make increasingly difficult decisions about how to balance their budgets. Schools might, for example, need to reduce staff numbers, disproportionately affecting children with special educational needs and/or disabilities (SEND), who we will require more specialist support from school staff.

Today’s (18th February 2024) report draws attention to the need for greater powers for local authorities over school places, particularly regarding school closures. It also recommends that local authorities should be allowed to manage in-year admissions for all schools, reducing lengthy waits for children and streamlining the application process for parents.

Councillor Ian Edwards, London Councils executive member for children and young people said: “London has many of the best schools in the country, with 96 per cent of all our schools being rated good or outstanding by Ofsted. London boroughs are determined to ensure there continues to be sufficient high quality school places available in each local area, despite this difficult climate. 

“London Councils has welcomed many of the measures proposed in the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill that will create a fairer education system for all, but there is further to go. Boroughs will continue to work closely with key education partners in London to mitigate the impact of this drop in demand for school places on school budgets and children’s achievements."