There will be “little or no headway” in closing GCSE attainment gap

Analysis published by the Education Endowment Foundation (EEF) reveals that there is little chance of closing the attainment gap between disadvantaged pupils in the next five years.

The research looks at data from Key Stage 2 to predict how the attainment gap is likely to shift in the next five years.

Improvements in primary schools over the past few years mean that the gap between the proportion of disadvantaged pupils with at least a good pass in English and maths and all other pupils is set to reduce from 24 percentage points (ppts) to 21.5 between 2017 and 2021.

However, for Attainment 8 – which measures average achievement in GCSE across eight subjects – there will be no change: the attainment score gap of 11 points in 2017 will remain in 2021.

For Progress 8 – which measures students’ progress between Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 across eight subjects – the attainment gap is set to increase a little: from 14.8ppts in 2017 to 15.6 in 2021.

The report notes that, as this forecast is based on Key Stage 2 results, there is opportunity for secondary schools to make a difference. For instance, ensuring disadvantaged pupils are entered for the same number of subjects as all other pupils would lower the forecast gap in Attainment 8 scores from 10.8 points to 8.8 in 2021, a significant reduction.

The report also highlights how the attainment gap is not just problem for schools assessed by Ofsted as under-performing. While GCSE grades for all pupils are higher in schools with Ofsted ratings of ‘Outstanding’ or ‘Good’ than in those rated ‘Requires improvement’ or ‘Inadequate’, the size of the Attainment 8 gap is consistent across all four types of schools.

The report looks at the state of the attainment gap in England on a range of measures, collating existing research from a number of sources, in addition to the new analysis. It highlights that:

Sir Kevan Collins, chief executive of the Education Endowment Foundation, said: “Closing the attainment gap between poorer pupils and their classmates is our best shot at improving social mobility.

"So while it is good to see that primary schools’ hard work is likely to yield improvements in GCSE English and maths in the next five years, the slow progress in tackling the overall GCSE attainment gap shows there is a lot still to do."