COVID-19 recession could boost teacher numbers

Covid-19 could reduce teacher recruitment shortages by between 20 and 40 per cent each year over the next two years, as more graduates enter the profession because it is considered 'safe' in times of recession.

This is according to a report from the Education Policy Institute (EPI).

Recent UCAS data suggests that Covid-19 may have had an immediate effect on applications to teacher training programmes. The latest UCAS data from May shows that the number of applicants is greater than in any year since 2014. Although this does show that applications have been strong over the two months we must wait until there is more data available until we can attribute these changes in applicant behaviour to Covid-19.

While it is likely that more graduates will apply over the coming months, the EPI would expect the main increase in enrolment to start in the 2020-21 round. Following the 2008 recession, ITT enrolment did not peak until the 2009/10 application round, which started roughly 13 months after the recession struck.

The difficulty of obtaining a job during a recession may also reduce the number of teachers who leave the profession. A recent survey of teachers found that 14 per cent of respondents said that they had had second thoughts about changing jobs because of Covid-19. As more than 36,000 classroom teachers leave teaching each year, even a modest effect on attrition (e.g. a reduction 5 per cent) will have a large effect on the number of teachers in the school workforce (1,800).

The relative attractiveness of teaching may also draw in a wider pool of talented graduates who would have otherwise passed teaching over for a job elsewhere. Nothing is more important for pupils than the quality of their teacher and it’s possible that the recession will nudge some graduates towards a career in the classroom. That is exactly what happened in Florida: teachers who were drawn into the profession by recessions helped their pupils make about 3 months of additional progress.

By attracting more graduates into teaching and reducing the number of teachers who leave the profession, Covid-19 could ease teacher retention and recruitment challenges over the next few years.

However, the EPI warns that these teachers could leave as soon as alternative job opportunities become available, and therefore says that policymakers need to prioritise strategies to ensure that we keep the best teachers in the profession where they are needed most.