Low birthrates could impact future of pupil enrolment

Schools could face a £1 billion funding hit over falling enrolment rates, a report from the Education Policy Institute suggests. 

The think tank's report replicates the Department for Education’s (DfE) own national funding formula (NFF) to analyse the impact of potential funding policy decisions on individual schools and areas of the country.

It revealed the significant impact that projected falls in pupil numbers could have on school funding across England, showing the challenges that these demographic changes will present to the financial health of schools.    

The total pupil numbers in state-funded primary schools are projected to fall by 818,000 between 2022-23 and 2032-33, which the report has linked to a lower national birthrate.

It is a similar story for secondary schools, and the EPI said this "could result in school amalgamation or closure."

Researcher Robbie Cruikshanks said in the report: "As pupil numbers fall, many schools will see their budgets contract as a result."

He went on to say that the schools' costs will not decrease because of this which means "some of the most severely affected schools will struggle to stay viable."

However, the report did find that all regions with the exceptions of Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, and London are projected to experience an increase in funding in secondary schools between 2023-24 and 2029-30. The East of England is projected the largest increase at almost five per cent. 

All regions will experience a decrease in primary school funding between 2023-24 and 2029-30, with the North East projected the largest decrease of nine per cent. The East of England is projected the smallest decrease with a little over one per cent drop in funding. 

The report looked at how funding could be redistributed to improve the outlook for schools in the future. If decreases in funding due to falling pupil numbers were reinvested and funding was maintained at peak levels of 2024-25, funding could be increased by a further £148 for primary pupils, and £164 for secondary pupils by 2030.