Evidence of 'off-rolling' SEN pupils in London schools

New research commissioned by the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has raised concerns about an increase in ‘off-rolling’ of SEND pupils of secondary school age. This is a practice where a school removes a pupil from its roll due to concerns that their expected lower exam scores will impact the school’s overall academic performance.

While further evidence is needed to determine the scale of ‘off-rolling’, researchers found data which suggest this is happening and that it is most prevalent among pupils age 14 and 15.

For example, data shows that there was an average 11 per cent year-on-year drop in the number of children with specific learning difficulties (SPLD - a type of SEND) who had a high level of learning support needs as they moved up from year 10 to year 11 in London’s state secondary schools between 2012 and 2017. This suggests they are being ‘off-rolled’ by being permanently excluded or moved to another educational institution.

This is the age when pupils would be eligible to take Key Stage 4 exams, including GCSEs, their results in which would count towards a school’s performance in league tables. The data also suggest the higher the level of educational support needed, the higher the likelihood of suspected off-rolling.

The report summarises research carried out by education specialists Mime, working closely with South Thames Colleges Group, Orchard Hill College and Academy Trust, London Councils and the Association of Colleges. It recommends the Government should enforce its policy in the 2016 Queen’s Speech to make schools accountable for the results of their excluded pupils, to help to reduce the incentives for off-rolling SEND pupils.

The research has also identified a gap in skills provision for Londoners over the age of 16 with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND).         

The report shows that the demand for skills provision for Londoners aged 16 and above with SEND is projected to rise by five per cent between 2018 and 2022. But by 2021 there will be an estimated shortfall of 8,950 places across London – around 45 per cent of the total projected demand – which is primarily driven by gaps in provision for those aged 19 to 24.

Across the capital, the provision of skills for this group of Londoners varies, and those responsible for commissioning lack sufficient evidence and data to make informed decisions.

The report highlights London boroughs such as Barking and Dagenham, where SEND provision is underfunded by an estimated £4.7 million a year, and Hackney, which is forecasting a shortfall of £9 million.

City Hall is working on a number of initiatives to tackle this shortfall, including a joint internship programme with Transport for London to help SEND Londoners into roles at the Greater London Authority, as well as investing more than £6 million to support Londoners aged 16-24 with complex support needs to access education, employment and training opportunities.

The Mayor has written to the Secretary of State for Education, Damian Hinds, to outline his concerns and has pledged to work with London Councils, the capital’s 33 local authorities and the Government to address the gaps in provision.

The report also makes a number of recommendations to tackle the shortfall in provision head-on, including more funding to boost the supply of SEND skills provision, including assisting mainstream providers to support more young people with special educational needs and disabilities. Khan also calls for a London-wide register of providers for commissioners and other stakeholders, including information on the destinations of their young people with SEND in order to better understand the quality of provision across the city; as well as improving the evidence base and data-sharing between commissioners and providers.